Air transport Market analysis and forecasting

Market Analysis & Demand Forecasting Module
Assignment – the world of aviation was always fast paced but Covid-19 has brought a level of change never experienced before; this year’s strategy is history!
You are tasked with developing a passenger traffic forecast for one of the airlines listed below on behalf of a key supplier to these airlines. The supplier’s products are passenger variable and every passenger travelling is offered one of these PPE products on boarding the aircraft, including children!
The forecast needs to address both the short term (1-3 year period) and the longer term (up to 10 years) and provide an annual projection of passenger volumes by geographic segment. This will include domestic vs international traffic and international traffic should be broken down into at least three geographic regions.
The overall airline forecast should include at least two scenarios which reflect different patterns of recovery post-covid. You must explain why you have chosen the forecasting methodology that you have. All forecasting assumptions must be listed clearly, as should assumptions for the scenarios you have developed. You are also expected to recommend which forecast should be adopted and why.
You will need to undertake a thorough market analysis for the airline you choose and provide evidence to support your understanding of how this market is now and how it can be expected to change over the timeframe of the forecast. The market analysis should include at a minimum: commentary on their fleet composition; current network structure; mix of traffic; product offering; competitive environment and also the airlines’ financial status. All these factors and perhaps more that you can think of will influence the suppliers plans.
You must explain why you have chosen the forecasting methodology that you have. All forecasting assumptions must be listed clearly, as should assumptions for the scenarios you have developed.
The choice of airline that you can select comes from:-
• British Airways
• Virgin Atlantic
• Singapore Airlines
• Emirates
• Etihad
• Cathay Pacific
• China Southern
• LATAM
• Wizzair
• JetBlue
Word Limit: 3,500 words (for main report excluding figures, tables, appendices and references)
Page limit: 25 pages (including all graphs, charts, tables and appendices)
Note: Please follow the procedure to submit your assignment according to the school’s regulation.
Please note:
• A word count penalty of 10 marks will be deducted for any submission over the maximum permitted word count.
• There is a late penalty of 10 marks for each day of delay until the 4th day when your coursework will be considered as zero (unless extenuating circumstances have been approved).
• Remember plagiarism is an offence and is dealt with seriously at the University of Surrey. All essays should fully reference sources of information using the Harvard Referencing System (see PG handbook for further information on plagiarism).

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